Brady gets lucky?

Numberphile viewers are brilliant. One of them, Alan Stewart, has very promptly (*) emailed me about the latest video.

In the film, I attempt to throw a one-roll Yahtzee.

The odds of accomplishing such a feat (five matching dice showing any number) are 1 in 1,296.

I achieved the feat on the 627th roll. According to Alan's spreadsheet and graph (below), there was a 38% probability I would have reached my goal so early.

To reach a 95% chance of success, I'd have needed 3,881 rolls.

So 627 doesn't seem such an ordeal after all.

Here's the video:



(*) Alan's email arrived in the numberphile inbox at 10am - exactly one hour after the video was published!